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03/11/2010 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two teams that have a history of playing close games meet in the quarterfinal round of the Big East Tournament today, as the fifth-seeded Marquette Golden Eagles battle the fourth-seeded and 10th-ranked Villanova Wildcats at Madison Square Garden.
These clubs met twice this past January, with Villanova capturing a two-point victory in each clash. Those meetings came after the Wildcats claimed a thrilling 76-75 victory over the Eagles in the quarterfinals of last year's Big East Tournament. Thanks to the narrow wins, Villanova now owns a 10-6 all- time record against Marquette.
If the Wildcats are to continue their recent success against the Eagles however, they will have to play better than they did down the stretch. After winning 22 of its first 24 games, Villanova dropped four its final six to fall out of contention for a Big East title. Furthermore, the late slide dropped the team into a three-way tie for second place, earning the fourth seed after the tie-breakers were worked out. Still, the Wildcats received a double-bye for the second straight year with a 13-5 finish, and they are just one win away from a fifth semifinals appearance in the last seven years.
The Eagles meanwhile, were one of the hottest teams coming down the stretch, winning nine of their last 11 games of the regular season. Marquette, which has had a knack for playing close games, continued its run and trend of tight games with a 57-55 nipping of 13th-seeded St. John's in second-round play yesterday.
The winner of this game will move on to face the victor of the Syracuse/Georgetown pairing in the semifinals on Friday.
The Eagles blew a 14-point lead yesterday, but David Cubillan's three-pointer with 1.11 to play put them back on top for good in a 57-55 win over SJU. Lazar Hayward tacked on two free throws with 35 seconds left to provide a cushion for Marquette, which drained 10-of-18 long-range buckets on the day. Hayward finished with 20 points and nine rebounds, while Cubillan posted 11 points. A second-team all-Big East choice, Hayward led the Eagles in scoring (18.0 ppg) as well as rebounding (7.8 rpg) during the regular season. Jimmy Butler and Darius Johnson-Odom followed with 15.2 and 12.9 ppg respectively, but they combined for just 10 points yesterday.
The Wildcats are an explosive team that finished the regular-season averaging a healthy 82.8 ppg, while shooting 37.2 percent from downtown and 75.1 percent at the foul line. Scottie Reynolds is the driving force behind this attack and the first-team all-league choice leads Villanova in scoring (18.8 ppg) as well as steals (47). A 39.9 percent three-point shooter, Reynolds also dishes out 3.4 apg. Corey Fisher, who earned a spot on the all-league third-team, checks in with 13.5 ppg and he distributes a team-best 4.0 apg. Antonio Pena is the team's top option down low and he puts forth 10.8 ppg and a team-high 7.4 rpg.
<< Mountaineers and Bearcats collide in quarterfinal action
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The third-seeded and seventh-ranked West
Virginia Mountaineers begin their march towards a Big East Tournament title
tonight, as they face off against the 11th-seeded Cincinnati Bearcats in the
quarterfinals at M
<< Cornhuskers battle Red Raiders in Big 12 Tournament action
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 23rd-ranked Texas A&M Aggies are the
fourth-seeded team in the Big 12 Conference Tournament, and they will play a
quarterfinal-round game against the surprising 12th-seeded Nebraska
Cornhuskers today.
<< Vols open SEC Tournament against hapless Tigers
Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 15th-ranked Tennessee Volunteers are set
to take on the LSU Tigers in the first round of the 2010 SEC Tournament.
The winner of this contest will move on to face Ole Miss, the West Division's
second seed,
<< Longhorns and Bears meet in Big 12 Tournament
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 21st-ranked Baylor Bears are seeded
third in the Big 12 Conference Tournament, and they will begin action in the
event tonight with a quarterfinal-round matchup against the sixth-seeded Texas
Longhorns.
Thrashers try to end slide in Columbus >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Thrashers will be out to halt a poorly-timed
three-game losing streak in tonight's matchup with the Columbus Blue Jackets
from Nationwide Arena.
Atlanta had put itself in the Eastern Conference playoff mix with
Report: Roberts out at St. John's >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Norm Roberts is reportedly out as head coach
at St. John's after six seasons with the Red Storm.
The New York Post cited sources within the university as saying Roberts won't
be back for the 2010-11 season.
Habs hope to stay hot against Oilers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Montreal Canadiens continue their push for a postseason
berth when the surging club continues its current homestand with tonight's
bout against the Edmonton Oilers from the Bell Centre.
Montreal has won its last three
Golf Tidbits: Where has Stuart Appleby's game gone? >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Once the top-ranked Australian in the
world, Stuart Appleby has plummeted in the world rankings as his winless
streak stretches into its fourth season.
Appleby owns eight PGA Tour titles, including three s
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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